How Operation Chaos Caused Obama to Lose Indiana and Vote Shares Everywhere Else
The media fails to recognize that since March 4, there have been two sets of Republican crossover voters. The first group consists of the 40-50% who were driven by Operation Chaos. The other consists of moderates who are strongly for Obama.
Final Exit poll data shows that since Operation Chaos began on March 4 in OH and TX, the percentage of Republican crossover voters has risen from 6% to 9%. The increase has been almost totally to Clinton’s benefit.
Prior to March 4 (before Operation Chaos), 7 primaries allowed Republicans to participate. Obama won their vote by an average of 59-28%. He won all 7 primaries by an average 58-37% share.
Since Operation Chaos began on March 4, 5 primaries have been open to Republicans. Clinton won their vote by an average 57-41%. Obama won 2 of the 5 primaries (but should have won 4). He had an average 51-47% share in the 5 primaries.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results…
Republican Share of Democratic Primary Vote: Pre vs. Post March 4 (Operation Chaos)
Final Exit Polls
Pre March 4
Total Share Share of Rep Difference
Rep% HRC BO HRC BO HRC BO
AL 5% 42% 56% 52% 45% 10% -11%
SC 4% 27% 53% 20% 37% -7% -16%
IL 6% 34% 65% 36% 60% 2% -5%
MO 6% 44% 54% 21% 75% -23% 21%
LA 5% 37% 56% 17% 53% -20% -3%
VA 7% 35% 64% 23% 72% -12% 8%
WI 9% 40% 57% 28% 72% -12% 15%
Avg 6% 37% 58% 28% 59% -9% 1%
Post March 4
Total Share Share of Rep Difference
Rep% HRC BO HRC BO HRC BO
OH 9% 54% 44% 49% 49% -5% 5%
TX 9% 51% 47% 46% 53% -5% 6%
MS 12% 38% 60% 75% 25% 37% -35%
IN 10% 50.1% 49.9% 53% 47% 3% -3%
NC 5% 42% 56% 61% 32% 19% -24%
Avg 9% 47% 51% 57% 41% 10% -10%
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PARTY ID
Pre- March 4
AL MIX HRC BO JE
Dem 82% 40% 58% 1%
Rep 5% 52% 45% 3%
Ind 13% 48% 48% 3%
Total 41.6% 56.1% 1.4%
SC
Dem 73% 28% 57% 14%
Rep 4% 20% 37% 43%
Ind 23% 26% 42% 32%
Total 27.2% 52.8% 19.3%
IL
Dem 79% 36% 63% 1%
Rep 6% 36% 60% 4%
Ind 16% 22% 72% 4%
Total 34.1% 64.9% 1.7%
MO
Dem 73% 50% 47% 2%
Rep 6% 21% 75% 4%
Ind 22% 30% 67% 2%
Total 44.4% 53.6% 2.1%
LA MIX HRC BO
Dem 83% 38% 57%
Rep 5% 17% 53%
Ind 12% 36% 53%
Total 36.7% 56.3%
VA
Dem 70% 38% 62%
Rep 7% 23% 72%
Ind 22% 30% 69%
Total 34.8% 63.6%
WI
Dem 62% 46% 53%
Rep 9% 28% 72%
Ind 28% 33% 64%
Total 40.3% 57.3%
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Party ID
Post March 4 (Operation Chaos)
OH MIX HRC BO
Dem 69% 56% 42%
Rep 9% 49% 49%
Ind 22% 48% 50%
Total 53.6% 44.4%
TX
Dem 66% 53% 46%
Rep 9% 46% 53%
Ind 25% 48% 49%
Total 51.1% 47.4%
MS
Dem 71% 30% 67%
Rep 12% 75% 25%
Ind 17% 43% 53%
Total 37.6% 59.6%
IN
Dem 67% 51% 49%
Rep 10% 53% 47%
Ind 23% 46% 54%
Total 50.1% 49.1%
NC
Dem 76% 39% 60%
Rep 5% 61% 32%
Ind 19% 50% 45%
Total 42.2% 55.8%