Archive for November, 2005

Final demonstration based on public data that Bush DID NOT WIN.

Posted in Exit Polls, General on November 25th, 2005

RESIGN NOW, NOT LATER. TAKE CHENEY WITH YOU (AND SCHMIDT FOR THAT MATTER)
(Reprinted with the permission of the author.)

PLEASE SHARE THIS POST WITH A FRIEND. Happy Thanks Giving!

All pre-election and election day polls showed Bush 47.8% to 48.7%
1) Bush’s 11-poll average election day job approval was 48.5% (1.0% MoE).
2) His pre-election national 18 poll weighted share was 48.7% (0.7% MoE).
3) His pre-election 50 state poll weighted share was 48.5% (0.6% MoE).
4) His National Exit Poll (12:22am timeline) vote share (gender demographic)
was 47.8% (1.2% MoE, assuming a 40% cluster effect).
5) His State Exit Poll weighted national vote share was 48.3% (0.50% MoE,
assuming a 40% cluster effect).

Here is the Pre-election 50 state poll share calculation:
Bush’s weighted poll share was 47.0%, as compared to Kerry’s 47.5%.
That accounts for 94.5% of the total.

Add 1.0% for third parties, for 95.5% of the total.
That leaves 4.5% undecided.
Of the 4.5%, add 1.50% (1/3) to the Bush share.
Therefore, Bush’s pre-election state poll share: 48.5%

And the Pre-election National 18 poll share calculation:
Bush’s weighted share was 47.30%, as compared to Kerry’s 47.55%.
That accounts for 94.85% of the total.
Add 1.0% for third parties, for 95.85% of the total.
That leaves 4.15% undecided.
Of the 4.15%, add 1.40% (1/3) to the Bush share.
Therefore, Bush’s pre-election National 18 poll share: 48.7%

Consider the Law of Large Numbers.
The mean of the the FOUR independent pre-and post election poll
group means {48.7, 48.5, 47.8, 48.3} is 48.33%.
That’s within 0.17% of Bush’s 48.5% PRE-ELECTION JOB APPROVAL!

The probability is 97.5% that Bush got LESS THAN 48.7% of the vote.
It’s virtually 100% that he got LESS THAN 49.0%.

Want more of this?
Bush’s current 37% job approval is confirmed by TWO INDEPENDENT poll sets:
1) the weighted average of 50 state polls (0.6% MoE).
2) the unweighted average of 12 national polls (1.0% MoE).

These results confirm prior election studies.
An incumbent’s TRUE vote is directly correlated to job approval.
They EXACTLY matched in 2004.
It’s also additional confirmation that the 12:22am exit polls were correct.

So naysayers, will you now claim that
1) 50 pre-election state polls were wrong?
2) 18 pre-election national polls were wrong?
3) 11 pre-election Bush approval polls were wrong?
4) 50 post-election state exit polls were wrong?
5) the National Exit poll (12:22am, 13047 respondents) was wrong?
6) 12 post-election national approval polls are wrong?

At the same time, will you claim that the Final National Exit Poll,
which was the ONLY poll matched to the recorded vote, was correct?
Even though it is a fact that impossible Voted 2000 demographic
weightings are necessary for Bush to have won it?

Naysayers,
You were wrong a year ago.
You were wrong 6 months ago.
And you are wrong now.

If the election were held today,
Bush would lose in a landslide of epic proportions.
Even Diebold couldn’t steal it for him.

Kerry won.
He really did.
He got 12 million more votes (63mm) than Al Gore (51mm).
Maybe this analysis will convince you.

But it’s a moot point.
Al Gore is still President.

Salon?
Mother Jones?
What ever happened to investigative journalism?
Time to get with the program.

Prove it to yourself.

Download the Excel Interactive Election Model.
Find the link at TruthIsAll.Net (link below)

TruthIsAll.Net–Comprehensive Democrratioins of Election Fraud Here including the Excel Interactive Election Model!

In this chart, note the PERFECT correlation.
BUSH APPROVAL RATING vs. EXIT POLL. Survey USA 11/13/05
Bush exit poll and CURRENT approval rating trend lines have identical slope.

Image

BUSH STATE APPROVAL DEVIATIONS FROM EXIT POLL.Survey USA 11/13/05
This related chart shows the deviations between the state exit polls and current approval ratings

Image

State and National Pre-Election/Exit Poll Simulations and National Exit Poll Timelines.
Image|

Posted on Democratic Underground by autorank. 

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URGENT CALL TO ACTION: CALIFORNIA RE. DIEBOLD CERTIFICATION

Posted in General, TAKE ACTION! on November 20th, 2005

BROADCAST WIDELY

URGENT CALL TO ACTION

November 20,2005
Sheri Myers, CitizensAct

MY FRIENDS,

Believe me, I really don’t want to ruin your day. But you need to hear this. This is an URGENT ACTION ALERT. The rally/protest is this Monday in Sacramento, we have ONLY next week to voice our concerns so they go on the record.

If you don’t read this and take action, you are allowing your vote to be stolen. California will turn red.

If you read this and do nothing, you are giving up your rights as a citizen. Do it for your country. Your children. Our future.

All Californians who care about the sanctity of their vote must let Secretary of State McPherson know that they WILL NOT ALLOW him to certify Diebold machines, that they are OUTRAGED that he is undermining our democracy.

McPherson was appointed by Schwarzenegger to replace Democrat Kevin Shelley.Folks, if they can’t win legally, they WILL steal the votes they need. THAT’S YOUR VOTE.

This is a Republican coup, and they are counting on YOU, and ME to do NOTHING. Is it worth FIVE MINUTES OF YOUR TIME to send a FAX, an email or make a call? PLEASE TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY.

Onward, furiously!
Sheri Myers

Call or write:
Secretary Bruce A. McPherson
1500 11th Street 5th floor
Sacramento, CA95814
elections@ss.ca.gov
916-653-6814 (main menu, press 6, then 3 – starting at 8:00 am Monday)
916-653-3214 (the FAX is on tis weekend)

Tell McPherson we demand an extension of the HAVA Deadlines. The California Election Law says:

19205. The Secretary of State shall establish the specifications for and the regulations governing voting machines, voting devices, vote tabulating devices, and any software used for each, including the programs and procedures for vote tabulating and testing. The criteria for establishing the specifications and regulations shall include, but not be limited to, the following:
(a) The machine or device and its software shall be suitable for the purpose for which it is intended.
(b) The system shall preserve the secrecy of the ballot.
(c) The system shall be safe from fraud or manipulation.

Please contact your CA congressperson: www.congress.org

Here’s the info the Rally on Monday:

Monday Nov. 21, 10 a.m. May be your last chance to block Diebold
Secretary of State’s Office, 1500 11th Street, Sacramento, CA 95814

more info: http://www.califelectprotect.net/DieboldNov21Hearing.ht…

Please show up to speak your mind about Diebold. You have two minutes. The vendor has had hours, days, months. Shut up, you’re just a taxpayer. Even if you feel a bit intimidated by the prospect of speaking at a podium, it will feel great to muster the courage to speak your mind and make a difference. You just put your name on a card before the hearing. Speak your mind. Show up a few minutes early. However we recommend for best results, show up by 9:00 a.m. on the west steps of the Capitol building. Just a heads up, something may happen.

Full article with the latest appalling info on Diebold: http://www.blackboxvoting.org
California Election Protection Web site: http://www.califelectprotect.net/home.html

BACK STORY – HOW McPherson is Sticking it to California.

California Sec. of State Disbands Voting Panel, Leans Toward Reversal of Previous Stance Against Diebold! Recertification Hearing on E-Voting Machines Changed at Last Minute, Participants Not Notified

JUST IN: Something very rotten suddenly seems to be occurring in the state of California! RAW STORY has the story, we explain it quickly…

URL:http://www.bradblog.com/archives/00002038.htm

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FEC probes rapper P. Diddy, not Blackwell; VIDEO – Diebold admits GEMS defects

Posted in Black Box (Electronic) Voting, General on November 16th, 2005

DIEBOLD ADMITS TO THE GEMS DEFECT (VIDEO CLIP)

On Oct. 17 2005, an ordinary citizen in Cleveland, Mr. Wright, asked 

what may turn out be the most important question of the year. What 

is Diebold’s explanation, he wanted to know, for the VBA Script hack 

of the GEMS central tabulator performed by Dr. Herbert Thompson? 

Here is the videotape showing Diebold Election Systems Chief Engineer 

Pat Green admitting that Diebold knew of the defect since 2004: 

http://www.bbvdocs.org/videos/GEMSDefect.mpg (8,860 KB) 

Black Box Voting has learned that the August 18, 2004 

CompuWare Report was hidden from the public by Ohio Secretary 

of State Ken Blackwell). Here is the tampering risk assessment, 

which Blackwell had in his hands BEFORE the Nov. 2004 election, 

but withheld from both the public and the Election Assistence Commission 

(the federal oversight committee charged with ensuring the security of 

elections in all states, not just Ohio: 

http://www.bbvdocs.org/reports/GEMS-RISK.pdf 

(full report: http://www.bbvdocs.org/reports/diebReasses081804.pdf)

This leads to the crucial question: If Diebold knew, and if Ken 

Blackwell knew, why wasn’t the Election Assistence Commission told, 

why were no other secretaries of state told, why didn’t Blackwell tell 

the Ohio election officials using GEMS, and why weren’t the mitigations 

deemed necessary by CompuWare ever implemented? 

FEC TO INVESTIGATE RAPPER "P. DIDDY" SEAN COMBS

But Ignores Blistering GAO Report on Insecure Voting Machines 

— No Scrutiny of Election Violations — 

According to a press release 

(http://www.bbvforums.org/forums/messages/8/13160.html,

)issued by the National Legal and Policy Center (NLPC), a conservative 

“ethics” watchdog group that specializes in filing complaints against 

progressive politicians and groups, the FEC has notified the NLPC 

that it will take up a complaint against rapper Sean Combs for his 

2004 “Vote or Die Campaign.” The NLPC Web site says the case 

has been assigned “Matter Under Review number 5684.” The 

NLPC hypes the so-called investigation, though the FEC letter itself 

appears more tepid, almost a form letter: 

http://www.blackboxvoting.org/FECCombs.pdf 

Black Box Voting, a minority-governed nonpartisan elections watchdog, 

says the FEC has better ways to spend its time and your dime. The FEC 

claims they are not staffed for many investigations. If that’s the case, 

why is a P. Diddy investigation on their priority list at all? 

The FEC is not investigating Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell 

who withheld critical security information. Public records requests

submitted by Black Box Voting have revealed that neither Blackwell nor 

Diebold corrected the GEMS defects before the 2004 election. These

defects remain uncorrected in nearly 800 jurisdictions. 

The FEC is not investigating the findings of the General Accounting 

Office voting system security report, released Oct. 21, 2005, which 

cites multiple security problems with the voting systems currently in 

use. Among the problems cited by the GAO Report: flaws in voting 

system security, access, and hardware controls, weak security 

management practices by vendors, and multiple examples of 

failures in real elections.  Full GAO report:

http://www.bbvdocs.org/reports/GAOReport_ElectionSecurity_102105.pdf

The Help America Vote Act allocated $4 billion to buy voting machines 

that taxpayers never asked for, many of which have turned out to be 

defective. The FEC is not investigating. 

A false claims lawsuit filed by Black Box Voting founder Bev Harris 

and investigator Jim March recovered $2.6 million for California taxpayers 

from Diebold Election Systems because of its poor voting machine 

security and improper testing and certification. The FEC never investigated 

whether such false claims affect any of the other 31 Diebold states, 

even after the California secretary of state requested a criminal investigation, 

citing Diebold’s lies to state authorities. More on false claims suit:

(http://www.bbvforums.org/forums/messages/1954/6738.html)

In October 2005, Black Box Voting revealed documents showing that

 in 2002, Diebold made misrepresentations to the Georgia secretary of 

state. (http://www.bbvdocs.org/diebold/GA-falsehoods.pdf)

In August 2005, Diebold submitted a letter to the Arizona secretary of state

(http://www.bbvdocs.org/diebold/AZ-sos-moreland.pdf

which contained serious misrepresentations pertaining to a security 

problem called “the GEMS defect.” One would think that making false 

claims to three secretaries of state in four consecutive years (2002, 

2003, 2004, and 2005), might represent a concern, but the FEC is not 

investigating this. 

(full Georgia sales presentation:

http://www.bbvdocs.org/diebold/GApresentation.pdf)

The FEC is investigating Sean Combs for allegedly flying in a private 

jet while conducting a “get out the vote” drive. The complaint alleges 

that people who spoke at his rallies made statements beneficial to a 

candidate (John Kerry). What the FEC has never investigated is 

Republican Senator Chuck Hagel’s $5 million stake in Election Systems 

& Software, the company that counted Hagel’s votes 

(http://www.blackboxvoting.org/bbv_chapter-3.pdf)

when he ran for office in 1996 and 2002. Nor has the FEC investigated 

Wally O’Dell, the Diebold CEO who promised to “deliver the votes to 

Bush in 2004.” 

VOTING MACHINE PROBLEMS AND PROCEDURAL VIOLATIONS HIT HARD NOV. 8 

2005 elections, casting doubt on Ohio and Detroit elections and revealing 

civil rights violations in Los Angeles. 

On Nov. 8, 2005 in Texas, new touch-screens could not choke out a 

result, so technicians for a vendor “manually retrieved” the votes from 

inside the computer. The FEC has asked no follow up questions about 

why a vendor’s technicians are handling votes at all, since they are not 

certified or sworn elections officials, nor has the FEC inquired how touch-

screens with no paper ballots that can’t find their own votes managed to 

pass testing and certification, or how a technician can reach into a touch-

screen to “retrieve” votes. 

http://www.bbvforums.org/forums/messages/8/13130.html

In Ohio, the Nov. 8, 2005 election produced staggeringly impossible 

numbers, but the FEC is not investigating why more votes showed up 

than voters, nor why the election reform ballot issue voting machine 

results were exactly opposite of the pre-election polls. 

http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/19/2005/1559

In Detroit’s Nov. 8, 2005 election, procedures broke down in 26 precincts 

causing nine electronic ballot boxes to go missing. These were not all 

recovered until two days later. At that time, thousands of other bogus 

votes were counted. However, the FEC is not investigating. 

http://www.bbvforums.org/forums/messages/1954/13139.html

Los Angeles citizens aren’t permitted to watch their votes being 

counted, a clear violation of California law. Black Box Voting was 

told the results “came out the same as expected” so we should not 

be concerned. Regardless of whether the votes “come out right,” 

hiding crucial vote-tallying processes is a civil rights violation, and 

powerful Los Angeles County Elections Registrar Conny Drake 

McCormack has a history with minority vote suppression and rights 

violations. 

Before taking the position in Los Angeles County, Registrar 

Conny Drake McCormack was the target of a Texas legislative 

effort referred to as the “Get Conny Drake bill,”(See footnote 1) 

an unsuccessful effort to find a way to fire elections officials who 

engage in voting violations targeting minorities. She had allegedly 

been withholding ballots in African-American districts. On another 

matter, regarding voting machines, she was found by the Department 

of Justice to have violated the Voting Rights Act of 1965. She was 

also subjected to a two-year election fraud probe by Texas attorney 

general Jim Mattox on another matter. While still under investigation 

in Texas, Conny Drake McCormack took over elections in San Diego

(replacing Ray Ortiz after he was indicted), then became elections 

chief in Los Angeles County, where she has arranged for votes to 

be counted on a customized, home-brewed tallying system, hidden 

from public view. 

On Nov. 8, Black Box Voting observed Los Angeles County election 

workers conducting a bait and switch. 

(http://www.bbvforums.org/forums/messages/1954/13095.html)

While the press and the public were instructed to look in a window 

to a room containing optical scan machines, results actually came out 

of a different set of computers in another room, which was hidden from 

view. The press was told that the system is certified and tested, but Black 

Box Voting cannot find that the Los Angeles tallying system, customized 

under Conny Drake McCormack, was ever examined by federal testing 

labs or the state of California as required by law. Though she is now 

the most powerful elections official in California — and one of the most 

influential in the nation — the FEC is not investigating Conny Drake McCormack. 

For more information on things the FEC is not investigating, see investigations

(http://www.bbvforums.org/forums/messages/1954/1954.html

and News (http://www.bbvforums.org/forums/messages/8/114.html)

at Black Box Voting (.ORG) 

(Footnote 1) Dallas Morning News, Mar. 31 1987: Elections Chief Resigning 

After Troubled Tenure 

…"bumpy roads … include Attorney General Jim Mattox’s continuing 

investigation into vote-fraud allegations … Ms. McCormack weathered 

investigations by the U.S. Justice Department, the Texas secretary of state’s 

office and the Dallas County district attorney’s office … legislation dubbed

the "Get Conny Drake (her maiden name) bill’ … Top Democratic officials 

called for her ouster. Roy Orr, a commissioner at the time, called her "a jerk 

at the wheel’ and "a typical bureaucrat.’ John Wiley Price, now a commissioner, 

called her a liar and a racist. 

———–

Black Box Voting is a nonprofit, nonpartisan 501c(3) elections watchdog. We 

are fighting for your right as a citizen to view and oversee your own voting

process. Our focus is on increasing your access to the elections process,

obtaining crucial public records to document what is going on in elections, 

and exposing procedural problems that corrupt the integrity of the election.

Black Box Voting is supported entirely by citizen donations. You can support

this important work by clicking here: http://www.blackboxvoting.org/donate.html

or by sending to 330 SW 43rd St. Suite K, PMB 547, Renton WA 98055

———–Black Box Voting

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