Archive for the 'TruthIsAll' Category

2008 Election Model – A Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation

Posted in '04 Election, '08 Election, Democratic Underground, media censorship, TruthIsAll on August 27th, 2008

Original: 2008 Election Model – A Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation

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How Operation Chaos Caused Obama to Lose Indiana and Vote Shares Everywhere Else

Posted in '08 Primaries, Operation Chaos, TruthIsAll on May 8th, 2008

by TruthIsAll

The latest media myth is that Rush Limbaugh’s Operation Chaos had no effect on the Indiana primary. Their argument is that the Clinton-Obama (53-47) share of the 10% Republican crossover vote is virtually the same as the (51-49) split in the total vote. This analysis will show that were it not for Operation Chaos, Obama would have definitely won Indiana and very possibly Texas.

The media fails to recognize that since March 4, there have been two sets of Republican crossover voters. The first group consists of the 40-50% who were driven by Operation Chaos. The other consists of moderates who are strongly for Obama.

Final Exit poll data shows that since Operation Chaos began on March 4 in OH and TX, the percentage of Republican crossover voters has risen from 6% to 9%. The increase has been almost totally to Clinton’s benefit.

Prior to March 4 (before Operation Chaos), 7 primaries allowed Republicans to participate. Obama won their vote by an average of 59-28%. He won all 7 primaries by an average 58-37% share.

Since Operation Chaos began on March 4, 5 primaries have been open to Republicans. Clinton won their vote by an average 57-41%. Obama won 2 of the 5 primaries (but should have won 4). He had an average 51-47% share in the 5 primaries.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results…


Republican Share of Democratic Primary Vote: Pre vs. Post March 4 (Operation Chaos)

Final Exit Polls									
Pre March 4
 		Total Share		Share of Rep	Difference	
	Rep%	HRC	BO 		HRC	BO 		HRC	BO 
AL	5%	42%	56%		52%	45%		10%	-11%
SC	4%	27%	53%		20%	37%		-7%	-16%
IL	6%	34%	65%		36%	60%		2%	-5%
MO	6%	44%	54%		21%	75%		-23%	21%
LA	5%	37%	56%		17%	53%		-20%	-3%
VA	7%	35%	64%		23%	72%		-12%	8%
WI	9%	40%	57%		28%	72%		-12%	15%
 
Avg	6%	37%	58%		28%	59%		-9%	1%
 									
Post March 4
 		Total Share		Share of Rep	Difference	
	Rep%	HRC	BO 		HRC	BO 		HRC	BO 
OH	9%	54%	44%		49%	49%		-5%	5%
TX	9%	51%	47%		46%	53%		-5%	6%
MS	12%	38%	60%		75%	25%		37%	-35%
IN	10%	50.1%	49.9%		53%	47%		3%	-3%
NC	5%	42%	56%		61%	32%		19%	-24%
 
Avg	9%	47%	51%		57%	41%		10%	-10%

__________________________________________________________

PARTY ID
Pre- March 4 
 
AL	MIX	HRC	BO 	JE					
Dem	82%	40%	58%	1%					
Rep	5%	52%	45%	3%					
Ind	13%	48%	48%	3%					
Total		41.6%	56.1%	1.4%					
 

SC
Dem	73%	28%	57%	14%					
Rep	4%	20%	37%	43%					
Ind	23%	26%	42%	32%					
Total		27.2%	52.8%	19.3%					
 

IL
Dem	79%	36%	63%	1%					
Rep	6%	36%	60%	4%					
Ind	16%	22%	72%	4%					
Total		34.1%	64.9%	1.7%					

 
MO
Dem	73%	50%	47%	2%					
Rep	6%	21%	75%	4%					
Ind	22%	30%	67%	2%					
Total		44.4%	53.6%	2.1%					
 

LA	MIX	HRC	BO 						
Dem	83%	38%	57%						
Rep	5%	17%	53%						
Ind	12%	36%	53%						
Total		36.7%	56.3%						
 

VA
Dem	70%	38%	62%						
Rep	7%	23%	72%						
Ind	22%	30%	69%						
Total		34.8%	63.6%						
 

WI
Dem	62%	46%	53%						
Rep	9%	28%	72%						
Ind	28%	33%	64%						
Total		40.3%	57.3%						
 
__________________________________________________________
 
Party ID
Post March 4 (Operation Chaos)									
 
OH	MIX	HRC	BO 						
Dem	69%	56%	42%						
Rep	9%	49%	49%						
Ind	22%	48%	50%						
Total		53.6%	44.4%						
 

TX
Dem	66%	53%	46%						
Rep	9%	46%	53%						
Ind	25%	48%	49%						
Total		51.1%	47.4%						
 

MS
Dem	71%	30%	67%						
Rep	12%	75%	25%						
Ind	17%	43%	53%						
Total		37.6%	59.6%						
 

IN
Dem	67%	51%	49%						
Rep	10%	53%	47%						
Ind	23%	46%	54%						
Total		50.1%	49.1%						
  

NC
Dem	76%	39%	60%						
Rep	5%	61%	32%						
Ind	19%	50%	45%						
Total		42.2%	55.8%	

Original Article

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TRUTHISALL: The 2006 FINAL National Exit Poll does NOT compute – again!

Posted in '06 Election, Exit Polls, General, Main Stream Media, TruthIsAll on November 11th, 2006
Once again, the FINAL National Exit Poll does NOT compute.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/US/H/00/epolls.0.html

THE DEMOCRATS DID MUCH BETTER THAN THE FINAL EXIT POLL
INDICATES!

They always do.

Remember Kerry in 2004?

He won the 13047 respondent National Exit Poll timeline
at 12:22am by 51-47%.

But the Final Exit Poll (13660 respondents at 2pm) said Bush
won by 51-48%.

Fast forward to 2006.

The 7pm Montana exit poll said Tester won by 53-46.
The Final Exit Poll: 50-47.5
The recorded vote: 49-48

The 7pm Virginia exit poll said Webb won by 53-46.
The Final Exit Poll: 50.1-49.9	
The recorded vote: 50-49.

What do 2004 and 2006 also have in common?
The Final Exit Poll was matched to the recorded vote.
It always is. That's SOP.
The Democratic vote was 3% too low.

Bottom line:

If the recorded vote was bogus and the election was rigged
through uncounted ballots and switched votes, you would
never know it from the Final Exit Poll.

But if you view the earlier exit poll timeline, you would
be alerted to fraud. And if you analyze the demographics,
you would confirm the theft.

Let's start our analysis with the 116 GENERIC PRE-ELECTION
POLL TREND LINE.  The Democratic vote share has been a
steadily increasing trend line.

On Nov. 7, the Dems held a 14.6% lead over the GOP.

Here's graphic proof:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Election2006_16921_image001.png

The Generic trend line on Nov.7:
Dem 51.8% - GOP 38.6%
Convert to 2-party shares:
Dem 57.3% - GOP 42.7%
That's a 14.6% spread.
We will refer to the 14% spread in the following analysis.
_________________________________________

Lets look at the 2006 NATIONAL EXIT POLL, posted on CNN:

PARTY-ID			
.....	Mix	Dem	Rep
Dem	38%	90%	9%  C 38% too low, 90% too low, 9% too high
Rep	38%	7%	93% C 38% too high, 93% too high, 7% too low
Ind	25%	49%	46% C 49% WTF! Independents voted 60/40 for Dems

Total	101%	49.1%	50.3% C WTF! Are they serious?

IT'S PROOF THAT THE 2006 FINAL EXIT POLL IS BOGUS:
According to poll, the GOP won by 50.3-49.1%.
Really?

1) 2006 Voters identified as 38% Democratic, 38% Republican,
25%
Independent.

THIS IS ABSOLUTELY IMPOSSIBLE !

Here's why:

a) The weights don't sum to 100.
OK, no big deal here.

b) Dems outnumbered Repubs.
Who was more motivated to vote this time?

c) The weights were 38D-35R-27I at the 12:22am 2004 NEP
timeline.
Look it up.

d) THE CLINCHER:
The 2006 vote based on PARTY-ID weights/vote shares
are IMPOSSIBLE! If the weights/shares are to be
believed, then the GOP won the Generic vote! Why,
then, would you believe them?

The NEP UNDERSTATES the Democratic Generic vote share by 7%.

It OVERSTATES the GOP Generic vote share by 7%.

How do we know this?

Simple. The Dems won the final Generic Polls by more than
14%!

Since 2004, the Final NEP has become laughable, a sick joke.
Don't they realize they can't fool us anymore?
Don't they realize that we can crunch the numbers?
Would someone please get this to Olbermann?

2006 NATIONAL EXIT POLL
Sample 13208 MOE 0.87%
Weights/shares adjusted to derive a 12% Democratic Generic
spread

PARTY-ID (adjusted)			
Dem	40%	93%	7%
Rep	35%	11%	89%
Ind	25%	60%	40%

Total	100%	56.1%	44.0%

That's more like it!
________________________________________________

HOW VOTED IN 2004
Using this demographic, the spread is 55.8 Dem-44.2 GOP.
That's an 11.6% spread. But it's too low. Why?
Because the Bush/Kerry/Other weights are bogus.
Kerry won by 52-47%. The third party vote was 1%.

This is an analysis of how impossible Final Exit Poll weights

were used to match a corrupt 2004 vote count:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/BogusWeights.htm

2006 NATIONAL EXIT POLL
Sample 13208 MOE 0.87%

HOW VOTED in 2004
........Mix Dem GOP
Kerry   45% 94% 5%
Bush    46% 13% 85%
Other    5% 62% 21%
No       4% 79% 18%

Total 97.6% 54.5% 43.1%
2-pty  100% 55.8% 44.2%

Now let's adjust the weights and vote shares to
derive a 14% spread.

We use 51 Kerry/46 Bush/1 Other/2 No weights.

The adjusted weights are based on the TRUE Kerry/Bush
vote BEFORE it was stolen with uncounted spoiled/lost
ballots and vote switching.

2006 NATIONAL EXIT POLL

VOTED IN 2004
(adjusted weights and vote shares)			
........Mix   Dem    GOP
Kerry	  51%	 94%	5%  C Kerry's true 2004 vote
Bush	  46%	 13%	85% C Bush's true vote
Other	   1%	 62%	21% C Third parties had 1% of the vote
DNV	   2%	 79%	18% C did not vote in 2004

Total	98.3%	 56.1% 42.2%
2-pty	 100%  57.1% 42.9%

The adjusted Democratic 2-party national vote
share is now 57.1%.  That's within 0.2% of the
Nov.7 trend line (see above).

_______________________________________________________________

GENDER
Based on the 2006 National Exit Poll 2-party vote shares,
the national split was 54.4% Dem-45.6% GOP.
That's an 8.8% spread. Much too low.

2006 NATIONAL EXIT POLL
GENDER
(adjusted weights and vote shares)			
.......Mix Dem GOP
Male   48% 51% 47%
Female 52% 56% 43%

Total 98.5% 53.6% 44.9%
2-pty  100% 54.4% 45.6%

Ask these questions, regarding national vote shares:

WHY THE 2.8% DISCREPANCY BETWEEN "GENDER" AND
"HOW
VOTED"?

WHY THE 5% DISCREPANCY BETWEEN "GENDER" AND
"PARTY-ID"?

Once again, let's adjust the weights and vote shares to get a
result which
approximates the Generic vote.

GENDER (Adjusted) 			
.......Mix Dem  GOP
Male 	46% 53%  47%
Female 54% 57%  43%
Total 100% 55.2% 44.8%

This is just further confirmation that the Final
2006 NEP was matched to a corrupt vote count,
just as it was in in 2004 and 2000.

Edison-Mitofsky never consider the possibility
of a corrupt vote
count in discussing their exit poll methodology.

WHY DO THEY DO THIS?
WHY DO THEY ALWAYS ASSUME ZERO FRAUD?
WHY DO THEY ALWAYS ASSUME A PRISTINE VOTE COUNT?

THAT'S WHY THE FINAL NATIONAL EXIT POLLS ARE ALWAYS WRONG.

THAT'S WHY THE FINAL EXIT POLLS ALWAYS LOW-BALL THE
DEMOCRATIC VOTE.

THAT'S WHY THE FINAL EXIT POLLS NEVER MATCH FINAL
PRE-ELECTION POLLS.

THAT'S WHY THE EARLY, UNCONTAMINATED EXIT POLLS ARE CLOSE TO
THE TRUTH.

AND THAT'S WHY THEY'LL NEVER SHOW US RAW EXIT POLL DATA.

by TruthIsAll, posted on Democratic Underground by Autorank
________________________________________________

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