To believe that Bush won the election, you must also believe…
Posted in Exit Polls, General on September 3rd, 20051- That the exit polls were WRONG…
2- That Zogby’s 5pm election day calls for Kerry winning OH, FL were WRONG. He was exactly RIGHT in his 2000 final poll.
3- That Harris last minute polling for Kerry was WRONG. He was exactly RIGHT in his 2000 final poll.
4- The Incumbent Rule I (that undecideds break for the challenger)was WRONG.
5- The 50% Rule was WRONG (that an incumbent doesn’t do better than his final polling)
6- The Approval Rating Rule was WRONG (that an incumbent with less than 50% approval will most likely lose the election)
7- That Greg Palast was WRONG when he said that even before the election, 1 million votes were stolen from Kerry. He was the ONLY reporter to break the fact that 90,000 Florida blacks were disnfranchised in 2000.
8- That it was just a COINCIDENCE that the exit polls were CORRECT where there WAS a PAPER TRAIL and INCORRECT (+5% for Bush) where there was NO PAPER TRAIL.
9- That the surge in new young voters had NO positive effect for Kerry.
10- That Bush BEAT 99-1 mathematical odds in winning the election.
11- That Kerry did WORSE than Gore agains an opponent who LOST the support of SCORES of Republican newspapers who were for Bush in 2000.
12- That Bush did better than an 18 national poll average which showed him tied with Kerry at 47. In other words, Bush got 80% of the undecided vote to end up with a 51-48 majority - when ALL professional pollsters agree that the undecided vote ALWAYS goes to the challenger.
13- That Voting machines made by Republicans with no paper trail and with no software publication, which have been proven by thousands of computer scientists to be vulnerable in scores of ways, were NOT tampered with in this election
Part II: To believe Bush won the election, you must also believe…
1. That people who voted for Bush were not anxious to speak to exit pollsters in the states that Bush had to win (like Florida and Ohio) where the exit polls were off, but wanted to be polled in states that he had sewn up (like Arizona, Louisiana and Arkansas) where the exit polls were exactly correct.
2. That Democrats who voted for Kerry were very anxious to be exit-polled, especially in Florida and Ohio. That accounts for the discrepancy between the exit polls and the actual votes in these two critical states.
3. That women were much more likely to be polled early in the day in Florida and Ohio. That is another reason why the exit polls were wrong in those states. In those states in which the exit polls were correct to within one percent, women did not come out early.
4. That the University of Pennsylvania Professor (trained at MIT) who calculated the probability of Bush gaining votes beyond the exit polling margin of error as ONE out of 250 million, does not have any credibility.
5. That network newscasters who claim that those who consider the possibility of fraud are just wild conspiracy theorists do not have an agenda.
6. That it is just a coincidence that only since the 2000 presidential election have exit polls failed to agree with the actual vote - and that Bush won both disputed elections.
7. That exit polls are not to be trusted in the United States, even though they are used throughout the world to monitor elections for fraud.
8. That even though more votes were cast than there were eligible voters in many precincts of critical states, it is not an issue that needs to be covered in the media.
9. That the absence of a paper ballot trail for touch screen computers does not encourage fraud, even though they have been proven by hundreds of computer experts to be highly vulnerable to fraudulent attack.
10. That statistical tests which indicate a high probability of fraud are just conspiratorial junk science.
Part IIIb: To believe that Bush won the election, you must also believe….
1. That his vote tallies could exceed his exit poll percentage in FL by 4%. Based on 2846 individuals exit polled, the polling margin of error was 1.84%.
The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 1667.
2. That his vote tallies could exceed his exit poll percentage in OH by 3%. Based on 1963 individuals exit polled, the polling margin of error was 2.21%.
The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 333.
3. That his vote tallies could exceed his exit poll percentages in 41 out of 51 states.
The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 135,000.
4. That his vote tallies could exceed the margin of error in 16 states. Not one state vote tally exceeded the MOE for Kerry.
The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 13.5 Trillion.
5. That his vote tallies could exceed a 2% exit poll margin of error in 23 states.
The probability of this occurrence: as close to ZERO as you can get.
6. That of 88 documented touch screen incidents, 86 voters would see their vote for Kerry come up Bush - and only TWO from Bush to Kerry.
The probability of this occurrence: as close to ZERO as you can get.
7. That Bush could overcome Kerry’s 50.8% - 48.2% lead in the National Exit Poll Sub-sample (13,047 polled) and win the popular vote: 51.2% - 48.4%, a 3.0% increase from the exit poll to the vote tally, far beyond the 0.86% margin of error.
The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 282 Billion.
8. That Kerry would edge Bush by 15 votes in the additional 1000 votes uncovered in the Oshocton County OH recount, when Bush had previously won 57% of the 16,000 votes initially counted. Oshocton was the ONLY Ohio county which did a FULL recount.
The odds of this occurrence: Less than 1 in 4 million.
9. That by disputing the Ukrainian elections, the Bush administration would base its case on the accuracy of U.S. sponsored exit polling, while at the same time ignoring exit polls in the U.S. presidential election, which the media reported Kerry was winning handily.
10. That Mitofsky, with 25 years of exit polling experience, has lost his touch.
Part IV. To believe Bush won the election, you must also believe…
1. That the Final National Exit Poll (FEP) of 13660 respondents, which was matched to the recorded vote and had Bush the winner by 51-48%, had to be accurate. And you must also believe that the Preliminary Exit Poll (PEP) of 13047 which had Kerry the winner by 51-48% had to be inaccurate.
2. That if the FEP re-weighted the PEP percentage of Bush 2000 voters who voted in 2004 (from 41% to 43%) and also adjusted the corresponding Gore voters (from 38% to 37%), then the re-weighting accurately reflects the final vote count - which Bush won by 51-48%.
And it would, if Bush 2000 voters did in fact comprise 43% of all 2004 voters (122.26 million). But they didn’t, because the ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM percentage of Bush 2000 voters who could have voted in 2004 was 41.3% (50.45/122.26). This is the same 41% (rounded?) as given in the PEP, which Kerry won by 51-48%. And so even 41.3% is too high, for it assumes that NOT ONE Bush 2000 voter died prior to 2004, and that EVERY Bush 2000 voter also voted in 2004. Knowing this is impossible, why would you believe the FEP that said Bush won by 51-48%, since this very result assumes an impossibility?
3. That the 43% (52.57 million) of Bush 2000 voters who voted in 2004 must be LESS than the total Bush vote in 2000, since it is obvious that a certain percentage of Bush 2000 voters have passed on. And we can also assume that other former Bush voters either could not or would not vote in 2004. But it wasn’t LESS, it was MORE, so why would you believe it?
4. That the 43% statistic is accurate since Bush won by 51-48% and this weighted result assumes 43%. But for this result to be true, then you must also believe that Bush had at least two million more votes in 2000 than the 50.45 million he was credited with. But we know this is not true, so why would you believe it?
5. That the published U.S. annual death rate of 0.87% is incorrect, because if it were true, then it follows that about 3.5% of the population dies during each four year period. Therefore, Bush must have received at least 54.3 million votes in 2000 (52.57+1.75), if we assume that 1.75 million (or 3.5%) of Bush voters in 2000 passed on. This is a necessary condition in order to believe the 43% statistic. But Bush only received 50.45 million votes, so why would you believe it?
6. That Kerry won only 51% of the female vote, although the PEP had him winning by 54-45%. Gore won 54% of females in 2000. So why would you believe the FEP?
7. That the FEP Party ID weights were 37% Democrat/37% Republican/ 26% Independents, while the PEP had it 38/35/27 - virtually the same as the final exit poll Party_ID demographic in the prior three elections.
8. That even though Kerry won at least 4 million more votes than Bush among the 17% (21 million) voters who did NOT vote in 2000 (Kerry led 57-41% in the PEP, 54-45% in the FEP), he would still lose the election. Why would you believe it?
9. That even though Kerry won the new voters and those who did not vote in 2000 by at least 4 million (12-8 million), and that the Bush 2004 vote based on the 43% Bush 2000 voter stat was at least 3 million too high, Bush still gained 12 million votes from 2000 (from 50 to 62 million). Why would you believe it?
10. That the Reluctant Bush Responder (RBR) theory is true. Otherwise, how else could one explain the PEP exit poll discrepancies which had Kerry winning? But if you believe RBR, how can you also believe that 43% of Bush 2000 voters came to the polls in 2004, but only 37% did for Gore? Both statements CANNOT be true, because they are contradictory, yet they MUST BOTH both be true if one is to believe that Bush really did win the election. But why would you believe it?
by TruthIsAll at Democratic Underground
