For more information or to order a DVD please visit UNCOUNTED – The New Math of American Elections. 

Under-sampling of Democrats in the House Exit Poll

and the Corruption of the Official Vote Count

Jonathan Simon, JD, and Bruce O’Dell1

Election Defense Alliance

Introduction: Pre-Election Concern, Election Day Relief, Alarming Reality

There was an unprecedented level of concern approaching the 2006 Election (“E2006”) about the vulnerability of the vote counting process to manipulation. With e-voting having proliferated nationwide, and with incidents occurring with regularity through 2005 and 2006, the alarm spread from computer experts to the media and the public at large. It would be fair to say that America approached E2006 with held breath.

For many observers, the results on Election Day permitted a great sigh of relief—not because control of Congress shifted from Republicans to Democrats, but because it appeared that the public will had been translated more or less accurately into electoral results, not thwarted as some had feared. There was a relieved rush to conclude that the vote counting process had been fair and that the concerns of election integrity proponents had been overblown.

Unfortunately the evidence forces us to a very different and disturbing conclusion: there was gross vote count manipulation and it had a great impact on the results of E2006, significantly decreasing the magnitude of what would have been, accurately tabulated, a landslide of epic proportions. Because virtually all of this manipulation appears to have been computer-based, and therefore invisible to the legions of at-the-poll observers, the public was informed of “isolated incidents and glitches” but remains unaware of the far greater story: The electoral machinery and vote counting systems of the United States did not honestly and accurately translate the public will and certainly can not be counted on to do so in the future.

The Evidentiary Basis

Our analysis of the distortions introduced into the E2006 vote count relies heavily on the official exit polls once again undertaken by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International (“Edison/Mitofsky”) on behalf of a consortium of major media outlets known as the National Election Pool (NEP). In presenting exit poll-based evidence of vote count corruption, we are all too aware of the campaign that has long been waged to discredit the reliability of exit polls as a measure of voter intent. Our analysis is not, however, based on a broad assumption of exit poll reliability. We maintain only that the national exit poll for E2006 contains within it a specific question that serves as an intrinsic and objective yardstick by which the validity of the poll’s sample can be established, from which our conclusions flow directly.

For the purposes of this analysis our primary attention is directed to the exit poll in which respondents were asked for whom they cast their vote for the House of Representatives. 2 Although only a few House races were polled as individual races, an additional nationwide sample of more than 10,000 voters was drawn,3 the results representing the aggregate vote for the House in E2006. The sample was weighted according to a variety of demographics and had a margin of error of +/- 1%.

When we compare the results of this national exit poll with the total vote count for all House races we find that once again, as in the 2004 Election (“E2004”), there is a very significant exit poll-vote count discrepancy. The exit poll indicates a Democratic victory margin nearly 4%, or 3 million votes, greater than the margin actually recorded by the vote counting machinery. This is far outside the margin of error of the poll and has less than a one in 10,000 likelihood of occurring as a matter of chance.

___________________________________________________________________________________________

1 Jonathan Simon, JD (http://www.electiondefensealliance.org/jonathan_simon) is Co-founder of Election

Defense Alliance. Bruce O’Dell (http://www.electiondefensealliance.org/bruce_odell) is EDA Data

Analysis Coordinator.

2 Edison/Mitofsky exit polls for the Senate races, which also present alarming discrepancies, will be treated

in a separate paper.

3 The sample size was roughly equal to that used to measure the national popular vote in presidential

elections. At-precinct interviews were supplemented by phone interviews where needed to sample early

and absentee voters.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________

Did The 2006 Exit Poll Oversample Democrats?

An Intrinsic Yardstick Answers This Question

In E2004 the only nontrivial argument against the validity of the exit polls—other than the mere assumption that the vote counts must be correct—turned out to be the hypothesis, never supported by evidence, that Republicans had been more reluctant to respond and that therefore Democrats were “oversampled.”4 And now, in E2006, the claim has once again been made that the Exit Polls were “off” because Democrats were oversampled. Indeed this claim is by now accepted with something of a “so what else is new?” shrug. The 2006 Exit Poll, however, contains an intrinsic yardstick that directly refutes this familiar claim.

Because the NEP envisions the post-election purpose of its exit polls as being limited to facilitating academic dissection of the election’s dynamics and demographics (e.g., “How did the 18-25 age group vote?” or “How did voters especially concerned with the economy vote?”), the NEP methodology calls for “adjusting” its exit polls to congruence with the actual vote percentages after the polls close and actual returns become available. Exit polls are “adjusted” on the ironclad assumption that the vote counts are valid. This becomes the supreme truth, relative to which all else is measured, and therefore it is assumed that polls that match these vote counts will present the most accurate information about the demographics and voting patterns of the electorate.

Logic tells us that if such an adjusted poll yields obviously inaccurate and distorted information about the demographics and voting patterns of the electorate, then the vote count it was forced to match is itself invalid—and quantifiably so.

______________________________________________________________________________________________

4 See for example David Bauder, AP, in a November 8 article at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/

content/article/2006/11/08/AR2006110800403.html . Oddly enough, ?oversampling? of Democrats has

become a chronic condition of exit polls since the proliferation of e-voting, no matter how diligently the

nonpartisan collection of experts at the peak of their profession strives to prevent it.

5 Any informed discussion of exit polling must distinguish among three separate categories of data: 1)

“Raw” data, which comprises the actual responses to the questionnaires simply tallied up (this data is never

publicly released and, in any case, makes no claim to accurately represent the electorate and can not be

usefully compared with vote counts); 2) “Weighted” data, which has been weighted or stratified on the

basis of several demographic and voting pattern variables to reflect the electorate as accurately as the

pollsters can manage with the extensive information they possess; and 3) “Forced” or “adjusted” data, in

which the pollster overrides all previous weighting in order to make the “Who did you vote for?” result in a

given race match the vote count for that race, however it distorts the demographics of the sample (that’s

why they call it “forcing”).

6 The 7:07 p.m. exit poll, as posted on CNN.com, reported a 10,207 sample size and, in accordance with

NEP methodology, the raw data had been weighted to closely match the demographics of the electorate.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________

The E2006 exit poll itself contains a “background” question which serves as an intrinsic measuring stick to allow us to put this claim to a very objective test. Respondents were asked for whom they voted in the 2004 presidential election.

Because this very telling intrinsic yardstick was included in the 2006 Exit Poll, it provides an objective basis to assess whether Democratic and Republican voters actually were sampled and weighted in correct proportions. In fact it reveals that Democrats won by a 4% greater margin than indicated by the actual vote count.

In the 2004 election, Bush’s margin was 2.8%. The 2006 exit poll results as of 7:07 p.m. on Election Night recorded a comparable 2% margin among respondents asked for whom they had voted in 2004, 45% Kerry to 47% Bush. This is a very strong indicator that the exit poll, on the evening of November 7th, accurately reflected the official 2006 outcome as a whole. The 2006 national vote for the House, as captured by this weighted but unadjusted Election Night exit poll, was 55.0% Democratic and 43.5% Republican, an 11.5% Democratic margin.

By 1:00 p.m. on Wednesday, November 8th, the final adjusted exit poll reported the overall vote for the House was 52.6% Democratic and 45.0% Republican. This was a 7.6% margin that matched the overnight preliminary 2006 election results tally, but was 3.9% smaller than that recorded by the 7:07 p.m. Election Night poll.

Yet for the same question—“For whom did you vote in the 2004 presidential election?”—the final, adjusted exit poll showed a margin of 43% Kerry to 49% Bush. This 6% margin in favor of Bush was a dramatic distortion of the 2.8% margin actually recorded in E2004.7

In the process of adjustment (or “forced weighting”) to make the poll results equal or mirror the reported vote results, the sample had to be distorted, by giving less weight to the respondents who said they had voted for a Democratic candidate and more weight to the respondents who said they had voted Republican.

In order to match the results of the official tally, the 2006 exit poll adjustment was so extensive that it finally depicted an electorate that voted for Bush over Kerry by a 6% margin in 2004: very clearly an undersampling of Democrats and an oversampling of Republicans.8

See Appendix 1 for detailed tabular presentation of the above data.

____________________________________________________________________________________________

7 While we present the reported 2.8% Bush margin in 2004 at face value, it will not escape notice that the

distortions in vote tabulation that we establish in the current paper were also alleged in 2004, were

evidenced by the 2004 exit polls, and were demonstrably achievable given the electronic voting systems

deployed at that time. We note that, if upon retrospective evaluation the unadjusted 2004 exit polls were as

accurate as the 2006 exit polls have proven to be, and their 2.5% margin for Kerry in 2004 is taken as the

appropriate baseline, a correctly weighted sample in 2006 would have included even more Kerry voters and

even fewer Bush voters than Edison/Mitofsky?s 7:07 p.m. poll, with a substantial consequent up-tick in the

Democratic margin.

8 The distortion is introduced because every “I voted for the Democrat for the House” questionnaire is

given a decreased weight necessary to bring the total Democratic vote down to the official reported

percentage, and every “I voted for the Republican” questionnaire is given an increased weight needed to

bring the total Republican vote up to the official reported percentage. That weighting also affects equally

the response to every question on the questionnaire, including of course the “Who did you vote for in the

presidential election of 2004?? question. That is how the results for that question went from 47%-45%

Bush in the weighted but unadjusted poll to 49%-43% Bush in the adjusted poll posted the next day.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________

What Really Happened On November 7th?

If the final and official exit poll numbers so grossly oversampled Republicans and undersampled Democrats in order to force a match of the overall numbers to the aggregate House vote tally reported on November 8th, then we must conclude that the valid exit poll was the unadjusted exit poll – from 7PM the previous evening – that gave us very nearly the correct proportions of Kerry and Bush voters.

That unadjusted poll indicated that the Democrats’ 2006 total House vote margin was 11.5%, or nearly 4% greater than the 7.6% reported vote count margin.9 This represents nearly a three million vote discrepancy between the validated exit poll results and the reported vote tally for the US House of Representatives. What could account for such a dramatic difference?

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

9 The 11.5% Democratic margin indicated in the unadjusted exit poll early on Election Night also was

consistent with the average of the major ?Generic House? public opinion polls conducted immediately prior

to the election. In fact, the 11.5% margin was substantially smaller than predicted by all but two ?outlier?

polls. nal_ballot-22.html…. It is

worth noting that virtually all of the pre-election polls shift, in the month before the election, to a “likelyvoter

cutoff model” (LCVM) that excludes entirely any voters not highly likely (on the basis of a battery of

screening questions) to cast ballots; that is, it excludes entirely voters with a 25% or even 50% likelihood of

voting. Since these are disproportionately transients and first-time voters, the less educated and affluent, it

is also a correspondingly Democratic constituency that is disproportionately excluded. Ideally these voters

should be down-weighted to their estimated probability of voting, but that probability is not 0%. By

excluding them entirely, these pre-election polls build in a pro-Republican bias of about 2-5%. Dr. Steven

Freeman, visiting professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Center for Organizational Dynamics, has

examined this phenomenon in great detail. Of course, one of the reasons for the recent shift to the LVCM–

a methodology that pollsters will generally admit is distorted but which they maintain nonetheless ?gets it

right?–is that pollsters are not paid for methodological purity, they are paid to get it right. The reality is

that distorted vote counts and a distorted but ?successful? pre-election polling methodology are

corroborating and validating each other, with only the exit polls (drawn from actual voters) seeming out of

step.

10 Consequently even the unadjusted exit poll, which fit the contours of the 2004 electorate, very likely

undersampled the Democrats voting in E2006. Indeed, once the on-going analysis fully quantifies the

extent of the Democrats’ turnout victory, it will be time to recalculate upward the extent of the vote

miscount in 2006. Our estimates, impounding the several exacerbating factors we have noted, put the likely

Democratic victory margin in the total House vote at more than 20% (61% – 38%).

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

Differential turnout?

While it could be argued that a sample with a 6% Bush > Kerry voter margin might be valid because Republicans turned out in droves and routed the Democrats in the E2006 turnout battle, there are a plethora of measures, including individual precinct tallies, that indicate the obvious: the Democrats clearly won the Get-Out-The-Vote battle; in fact many Republican voters stayed home, dismayed and turned-off by the late-breaking run of scandals, bad news, and missteps.10

The Democrats clearly won the turnout battle and yet the only way that the adjusted exit poll could be valid is to postulate a disproportionately Republican electorate that favored Bush by 6% rather than 2.8% in 2004, clearly a contradiction.

Vote count discrepancy?

If the weighted but unadjusted Election Night exit poll is valid as indicated, then it must be the reported vote tally which is inaccurate.11 Although this is, to put it mildly, an unwelcome finding, it is unfortunately consonant with analyses we are currently performing of the many specific incidents of vote-switching and mistabulation reported in 2006, and with a host of other evidence and analysis that has emerged about electronic voting technology as deployed in the United States.

We have argued that there is a remarkable degree of consensus among computer scientists,12 security professionals,13 government agencies,14 and independent analysts15 that U.S. electronic vote tallying technology is vulnerable to unintentional programming errors16 and to deliberate manipulation—certainly by foul-play-minded insiders at voting equipment vendors, but also by other individuals with access to voting equipment hardware or software.17

We have a system of “faith-based” voting where we are simply asked to trust the integrity of the count produced by the machines that tally our votes, with little if any effective checks and balances. In the context of yet another election replete with reported problems with vote tallying,18 the continuing mismatch between the preferences expressed by voters as captured in national exit polls, and the official vote tally as reported to the public is extremely disturbing.

Conclusion

While the reported results of the 2006 election were certainly well-received by the Democratic party and were ballpark-consistent with public expectations, the unadjusted 2006 exit poll data indicates that what has been cast as a typical midterm setback for a president in his second term was something rather more remarkable – a landslide repudiation of historic proportions.

We believe that the degree of statistical distortion now required to force exit polls to match the official tally is the clearest possible warning that the ever-growing catalog of reported vulnerabilities in America’s electronic vote counting systems are not only possible to exploit, they are actually being exploited.

Any system so clearly at risk of interference and gross manipulation can not and should not be trusted to tally the votes in any future elections.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

11 It will no doubt be objected that if such substantial manipulation of the vote counts is possible, why

would it stop short of bringing about a general electoral victory? While we would like to credit the

heightened scrutiny engendered by the untiring efforts of election integrity groups, an awakening media,

and a more informed and vigilant public, an alternative, more chilling, explanation has been suggested?

simply that the mechanics of manipulation (software modules, primarily) had to be deployed before latebreaking

pre-election developments greatly expanded the gap that such manipulation would have been

calibrated to cover.

12 For instance http://www.acm.org/usacm/weblog/index.php?cat=6

13 See the credentials of the interdisciplinary Brennan Center Task Force membership at

http://brennancenter.org/dynamic/subpages/download_file_36343.pdf

14 http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d05956.pdf

15 See http://www.blackboxvoting.org/BBVtsxstudy.pdf, http://www.blackboxvoting.org/BBVtsxstudysupp.pdf, and http://www.blackboxvoting.org/BBVreport.pdf

16 Credible reports of voting equipment malfunctions are all too common; one good starting point is

http://www.votersunite.org/info/messupsbyvendor.asp

17 For example http://brennancenter.org/programs/downloads/SecurityFull7-3Reduced.pdf

18 Election 2006 incidents at http://www.votersunite.org/electionproblems.asp

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

 From Election Defense Alliance

Guest blogged by Emily Levy of Velvet Revolution for The BRAD BLOG

Election Defense Alliance (EDA), a national election integrity organization, issued a press release yesterday announcing their new report, “Landslide Denied: Exit Polls vs. Vote Count 2006.”

According to EDA, the Edison-Mitofsky National Exit Poll, conducted by a consortium of news organizations, showed at 7 p.m. on Election Night an 11.5% vote margin in favor of Dems nationwide. But by 1:00 p.m. on the following day, according to EDA, “[T]he Edison-Mitofsky poll had been adjusted, by a process known as ‘forcing,’ to match the reported vote totals for the election.” The adjusted exit polls showed “a 7.6 percent margin exactly mirroring the reported vote totals.”

It was EDA co-founder Jonathan Simon whose foresight in downloading the Edison-Mitofsky exit polls on Election Night 2004 before those polls were adjusted made the discovery of the now-infamous “red shift” possible. Analysis of the original exit polls from 2004 became one of the most compelling bodies of evidence to suggest that the 2004 election was stolen on behalf of George W. Bush.

Now EDA reveals evidence of similar manipulation of this year’s election. In his story Clear Evidence 2006 Congressional Election Hacked, executive editor of OpEdNews Rob Kall quotes Simon as saying:

The BRAD BLOG wishes to point out the difference between election “hacking” and “rigging.” Hacking can be done by outsiders armed with such difficult-to-obtain weapons as a hotel mini-bar key (in the case of the Diebold TSx) or a finger (in the case of the Sequoia touchscreen machines). Rigging would be done by an insider such as someone working for an electronic voting machine company or a department of elections. The evidence of skewed results in the 2006 Congressional election doesn’t specifically prove whether hacking or rigging or both occurred, but certainly magnifies the call for further investigation into irregularities in the 2006 elections. Will this new report help the newly-elected-but-apparently-robbed-of-its-landslide Democratic Majority Congress understand the importance of revamping our election system before 2008?

The next phase of Election Defense Alliance’s work will be to analyze results of specific Congressional races. This work will include analysis of exit polls commissioned by Velvet Revolution (of which The BRAD BLOG is a co-founder) and other independent organizations. Perhaps then we will find out how many Democratic (or even Republican) candidates who have been declared losers actually won their races.

by Bob Fitrakis, Harvey Wasserman and Ron Baiman

November 14, 2006

Original Article @ http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/19/2006/2250

The percentage of uncounted votes in the allegedly “fraud free” 2006 Ohio election is actually higher than the fraud-ridden 2004 election, when the presidency was stolen here. A flawed voting process that allowed voters to be illegally turned away throughout the morning on Election Day may have cost the Dems at least two Congressional seats and a state auditor’s seat.

The evidence comes directly from the official website of GOP Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell Blackwell website. But researchers wishing to verify the number of uncounted ballots from that web site should do so immediately, as Blackwell is known for quickly deleting embarrassing evidence. In 2004, Blackwell deleted the evidence of excessive uncounted votes after the final results were tallied.

Despite Democratic victories in five of six statewide partisan offices, an analysis by the Free Press shows a statistically implausible shift of votes away from the Democratic Party statewide candidates on Election Day, contrasted with the results of the Columbus Dispatch’s final poll. The Dispatch poll predicted Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ted Strickland winning with 67% of the vote. His actual percentage was 60%. The odds of this occurring are one in 604 million. 

(Freepress has numbers matrix/chart in this area)

The final Columbus Dispatch poll wrapped up on Friday before the Tuesday election. This poll was based on 1541 registered Ohio voters, with a margin of error at plus/minus 2.2 percentage points and a 95% confidence interval. The Dispatch noted “The survey’s 7-point variance from Democrat Ted Strickland’s actual percentage total broke a string of five straight gubernatorial elections in which the poll exactly matched the victor’s share of the vote.”

The hotly disputed central Ohio Congressional race between incumbent Deborah Pryce, a close friend of George W. Bush, and challenger Mary Jo Kilroy, a Democratic Franklin County Commissioner has not been officially resolved as of today, November 14. The Franklin County Board of Elections has postponed the official recount of this race until after the November 18 Ohio State-Michigan football game. Another bitterly disputed Congressional race, on the outskirts of Cincinnati, also awaits a recount.

The major news leaking from the Blackwell web site is the stunning percentage of uncounted votes still outstanding throughout the state. When John Kerry conceded the day after the 2004 election, there were some 248,000 Ohio votes still uncounted, out of 5,722,443 officially cast. This was an astonishing 4.3% of the votes.

George W. Bush’s alleged margin of victory at the time was about 136,000 votes, which dropped to about 118,000 after a fraudulent recount. More than two years later, more than 100,000 votes from Ohio’s 2004 election remain uncounted including 93,000 machine rejected ballots.

Today, in 2006, the percentage of the official total vote that remains uncounted is actually higher than in 2004. According to Blackwell’s web site, there are 211,656 absentee and provisional ballots still uncounted in 2006, out of 4,177,498 votes officially cast. This is 5.1% of the total official vote.

The high percentage of provisional ballots is due mainly to new strategies used by Blackwell and the GOP legislature to eliminate votes in targeted areas. In Franklin County (Columbus), which is now heavily Democratic, there were 14,462 provisional ballots—2.7% of total votes—cast in 2004. In 2006 the number soared to 20,679, a substantial jump constituting more than 6% of all voters, in an election in which fewer total votes were cast.

Provisional ballots are issued when poll workers challenge citizens’ rights to a regular ballot. The provisional ballot will allegedly be counted later if proof of registration and proper residency are established. But to this day, some 16,000 such provisional ballots from 2004 have never been tallied.

According to Blackwell’s site, in 2006, there are 46,458 uncounted ballots in Franklin County alone. According to Matt Damschroder, Director of the Franklin County Board of Elections, some 19,524 are in Franklin County, where Kilroy is a Commissioner. Another 900 or so Kilroy-Pryce votes remain uncounted in the Madison and Union Counties.

The preliminary vote count finished election night gave Pryce a margin of some 3,536 votes. But Kilroy has refused to concede.

In 2004, Blackwell listed 788 precincts in Franklin Country, with 845,720 registered voters and some 533,575 votes cast, a 63.09% official turnout.

After the 2004 vote, the GOP-controlled board of elections purged some 170,000 Franklin County citizens from the registration rolls. The GOP claimed the right to eliminate those who had not voted in the previous two presidential election cycles. This is allowed by federal law not mandated. The impact has carried over to 2006.

For 2006, Blackwell has listed 834 precincts with 766,490 registered voters and 342,958 votes cast, an official 44.74% turnout. He lists 46,458 absentee and provisional votes cast in Franklin County. But much of the lower turnout and high provisional vote count may have to do with partisan restrictions imposed by Blackwell and the GOP, aimed at stealing elections precisely like the one between Pryce and Kilroy.

New voting requirements imposed by Ohio’s HB 3, passed by the GOP legislature just after the 2004 election, led to the “flagging” of hundreds of thousands of voters in Ohio. Free Press reporters have observed a “Stop Sign” icon next to the name of between 20-40% of the voters in inner city and campus precincts in Columbus.

The stop sign is outlined on page 50 of the Franklin County Board of Elections “Precinct Elections Training Manual.” It is tied to a “60-day election notice” sent to voters, but being returned as “undeliverable.” Ballots cast by voters with stop signs next to their names have been electronically recorded as provisional, according to the Training Manual, and many are likely to go uncounted because the voters were in the wrong precinct.

Traditionally, Ohioans have been able to cast a provisional ballot in any precinct in their home county. But Blackwell issued a directive in the lead-up to the 2004 presidential election ordering that citizens voting in the wrong precinct would not have their votes counted at all.

Free Press observers, and statements called into the Free Press, indicate that poll workers imposed large numbers of provisional ballots on voters in Kilroy’s strongholds at the Ohio State University campus and elsewhere in Columbus. A single election observer with the Five Candidates Election Observer Project 2006 reported that 1000 complaints an hour were coming into the Franklin County Board of Elections. So many were logged early in the day that the phone lines set up for the precinct workers failed. The phones for the public had to be diverted to answer the deluge of questions from pollworkers.

The Kilroy race thus may hinge on how many provisional ballots were trashed at the polling stations or will be discarded during the recount. Because the vast bulk of the uncounted ballots are in Kilroy’s strongholds, the she would normally be expected to pick up enough votes to eradicate Pryce’s current margin. On election night, Fox News initially announced that Kilroy would win.

But Franklin County’s Republican BOE Director Matt Damschroder has postponed the recount until after Saturday’s home game between number one-ranked Ohio State and number two-ranked Michigan. Rioting has traditionally broken out after this game, but the ballots are being stored at the BOE downtown, far from Buckeye Stadium.

The stunning number of uncounted, absentee and provisional ballots listed by Blackwell indicates that there may have been deeper problems with the 2006 Ohio election than widely believed.

Another Congressional race is being bitterly contested in three counties outside Cincinnati that of themselves gave George W. Bush his official margin of victory in 2004. In one of them, Warren County, an unexplained Homeland Security alert was declared just as the polls closed, with independent observers then banned from the vote count. This alert has yet to be explained by the HSA or FBI. In a special 2005 election this district, dubious computer glitches and scantron ballot problems resulted in a late night surge that gave a narrow and much-doubted margin to the Republican, Jean Schmidt, whose re-election by another narrow margin is now being angrily questioned. How many other tight races in Ohio may have been swung by dubious manipulations remains to be seen.

Though it’s just a week since the votes were cast here, reports of parallel irregularities pouring in from around the country indicate that the Rove/Blackwell election theft machine was in high gear on November 7. Thousands of grass-roots volunteers who monitored procedures around the US clearly made a difference.

But the full story of what really happened in Ohio 2006 and elsewhere almost certainly won’t be known until well after this year’s college football season.

–

Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman are co-authors, with Steve Rosenfeld, of WHAT HAPPENED IN OHIO?, just published by the New Press. They are of counsel and plaintiff in the King Lincoln lawsuit which helped unearth many of the irregularities in the 2004 and 2005 election. Fitrakis was an independent candidate for governor in Ohio 2006, endorsed by the Green Party. Wasserman’s SOLARTOPIA! OUR GREEN-POWERED EARTH, A.D. 2030, is available at www.solartopia.org. Ron Baiman is a statistician and researcher at Loyola University. Read more of their work at http://freepress.org.

Once again, the FINAL National Exit Poll does NOT compute.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/US/H/00/epolls.0.html

THE DEMOCRATS DID MUCH BETTER THAN THE FINAL EXIT POLL
INDICATES!

They always do.

Remember Kerry in 2004?

He won the 13047 respondent National Exit Poll timeline
at 12:22am by 51-47%.

But the Final Exit Poll (13660 respondents at 2pm) said Bush
won by 51-48%.

Fast forward to 2006.

The 7pm Montana exit poll said Tester won by 53-46.
The Final Exit Poll: 50-47.5
The recorded vote: 49-48

The 7pm Virginia exit poll said Webb won by 53-46.
The Final Exit Poll: 50.1-49.9
The recorded vote: 50-49.

What do 2004 and 2006 also have in common?
The Final Exit Poll was matched to the recorded vote.
It always is. That's SOP.
The Democratic vote was 3% too low.

Bottom line:

If the recorded vote was bogus and the election was rigged
through uncounted ballots and switched votes, you would
never know it from the Final Exit Poll.

But if you view the earlier exit poll timeline, you would
be alerted to fraud. And if you analyze the demographics,
you would confirm the theft.

Let's start our analysis with the 116 GENERIC PRE-ELECTION
POLL TREND LINE.  The Democratic vote share has been a
steadily increasing trend line.

On Nov. 7, the Dems held a 14.6% lead over the GOP.

Here's graphic proof:

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Election2006_16921_image001.png

The Generic trend line on Nov.7:
Dem 51.8% - GOP 38.6%
Convert to 2-party shares:
Dem 57.3% - GOP 42.7%
That's a 14.6% spread.
We will refer to the 14% spread in the following analysis.
_________________________________________

Lets look at the 2006 NATIONAL EXIT POLL, posted on CNN:

PARTY-ID
.....	Mix	Dem	Rep
Dem	38%	90%	9%  C 38% too low, 90% too low, 9% too high
Rep	38%	7%	93% C 38% too high, 93% too high, 7% too low
Ind	25%	49%	46% C 49% WTF! Independents voted 60/40 for Dems

Total	101%	49.1%	50.3% C WTF! Are they serious?

IT'S PROOF THAT THE 2006 FINAL EXIT POLL IS BOGUS:
According to poll, the GOP won by 50.3-49.1%.
Really?

1) 2006 Voters identified as 38% Democratic, 38% Republican,
25%
Independent.

THIS IS ABSOLUTELY IMPOSSIBLE !

Here's why:

a) The weights don't sum to 100.
OK, no big deal here.

b) Dems outnumbered Repubs.
Who was more motivated to vote this time?

c) The weights were 38D-35R-27I at the 12:22am 2004 NEP
timeline.
Look it up.

d) THE CLINCHER:
The 2006 vote based on PARTY-ID weights/vote shares
are IMPOSSIBLE! If the weights/shares are to be
believed, then the GOP won the Generic vote! Why,
then, would you believe them?

The NEP UNDERSTATES the Democratic Generic vote share by 7%.

It OVERSTATES the GOP Generic vote share by 7%.

How do we know this?

Simple. The Dems won the final Generic Polls by more than
14%!

Since 2004, the Final NEP has become laughable, a sick joke.
Don't they realize they can't fool us anymore?
Don't they realize that we can crunch the numbers?
Would someone please get this to Olbermann?

2006 NATIONAL EXIT POLL
Sample 13208 MOE 0.87%
Weights/shares adjusted to derive a 12% Democratic Generic
spread

PARTY-ID (adjusted)
Dem	40%	93%	7%
Rep	35%	11%	89%
Ind	25%	60%	40%

Total	100%	56.1%	44.0%

That's more like it!
________________________________________________

HOW VOTED IN 2004
Using this demographic, the spread is 55.8 Dem-44.2 GOP.
That's an 11.6% spread. But it's too low. Why?
Because the Bush/Kerry/Other weights are bogus.
Kerry won by 52-47%. The third party vote was 1%.

This is an analysis of how impossible Final Exit Poll weights

were used to match a corrupt 2004 vote count:

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/BogusWeights.htm

2006 NATIONAL EXIT POLL
Sample 13208 MOE 0.87%

HOW VOTED in 2004
........Mix Dem GOP
Kerry   45% 94% 5%
Bush    46% 13% 85%
Other    5% 62% 21%
No       4% 79% 18%

Total 97.6% 54.5% 43.1%
2-pty  100% 55.8% 44.2%

Now let's adjust the weights and vote shares to
derive a 14% spread.

We use 51 Kerry/46 Bush/1 Other/2 No weights.

The adjusted weights are based on the TRUE Kerry/Bush
vote BEFORE it was stolen with uncounted spoiled/lost
ballots and vote switching.

2006 NATIONAL EXIT POLL

VOTED IN 2004
(adjusted weights and vote shares)
........Mix   Dem    GOP
Kerry	  51%	 94%	5%  C Kerry's true 2004 vote
Bush	  46%	 13%	85% C Bush's true vote
Other	   1%	 62%	21% C Third parties had 1% of the vote
DNV	   2%	 79%	18% C did not vote in 2004

Total	98.3%	 56.1% 42.2%
2-pty	 100%  57.1% 42.9%

The adjusted Democratic 2-party national vote
share is now 57.1%.  That's within 0.2% of the
Nov.7 trend line (see above).

_______________________________________________________________

GENDER
Based on the 2006 National Exit Poll 2-party vote shares,
the national split was 54.4% Dem-45.6% GOP.
That's an 8.8% spread. Much too low.

2006 NATIONAL EXIT POLL
GENDER
(adjusted weights and vote shares)
.......Mix Dem GOP
Male   48% 51% 47%
Female 52% 56% 43%

Total 98.5% 53.6% 44.9%
2-pty  100% 54.4% 45.6%

Ask these questions, regarding national vote shares:

WHY THE 2.8% DISCREPANCY BETWEEN "GENDER" AND
"HOW
VOTED"?

WHY THE 5% DISCREPANCY BETWEEN "GENDER" AND
"PARTY-ID"?

Once again, let's adjust the weights and vote shares to get a
result which
approximates the Generic vote.

GENDER (Adjusted)
.......Mix Dem  GOP
Male 	46% 53%  47%
Female 54% 57%  43%
Total 100% 55.2% 44.8%

This is just further confirmation that the Final
2006 NEP was matched to a corrupt vote count,
just as it was in in 2004 and 2000.

Edison-Mitofsky never consider the possibility
of a corrupt vote
count in discussing their exit poll methodology.

WHY DO THEY DO THIS?
WHY DO THEY ALWAYS ASSUME ZERO FRAUD?
WHY DO THEY ALWAYS ASSUME A PRISTINE VOTE COUNT?

THAT'S WHY THE FINAL NATIONAL EXIT POLLS ARE ALWAYS WRONG.

THAT'S WHY THE FINAL EXIT POLLS ALWAYS LOW-BALL THE
DEMOCRATIC VOTE.

THAT'S WHY THE FINAL EXIT POLLS NEVER MATCH FINAL
PRE-ELECTION POLLS.

THAT'S WHY THE EARLY, UNCONTAMINATED EXIT POLLS ARE CLOSE TO
THE TRUTH.

AND THAT'S WHY THEY'LL NEVER SHOW US RAW EXIT POLL DATA.

by TruthIsAll, posted on Democratic Underground by Autorank
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