The media fails to recognize that since March 4, there have been two sets of Republican crossover voters. The first group consists of the 40-50% who were driven by Operation Chaos. The other consists of moderates who are strongly for Obama.
Final Exit poll data shows that since Operation Chaos began on March 4 in OH and TX, the percentage of Republican crossover voters has risen from 6% to 9%. The increase has been almost totally to Clinton’s benefit.
Prior to March 4 (before Operation Chaos), 7 primaries allowed Republicans to participate. Obama won their vote by an average of 59-28%. He won all 7 primaries by an average 58-37% share.
Since Operation Chaos began on March 4, 5 primaries have been open to Republicans. Clinton won their vote by an average 57-41%. Obama won 2 of the 5 primaries (but should have won 4). He had an average 51-47% share in the 5 primaries.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results… [2]
Republican Share of Democratic Primary Vote: Pre vs. Post March 4 (Operation Chaos)
Final Exit Polls
Pre March 4
Total Share Share of Rep Difference
Rep% HRC BO HRC BO HRC BO
AL 5% 42% 56% 52% 45% 10% -11%
SC 4% 27% 53% 20% 37% -7% -16%
IL 6% 34% 65% 36% 60% 2% -5%
MO 6% 44% 54% 21% 75% -23% 21%
LA 5% 37% 56% 17% 53% -20% -3%
VA 7% 35% 64% 23% 72% -12% 8%
WI 9% 40% 57% 28% 72% -12% 15%
Avg 6% 37% 58% 28% 59% -9% 1%
Post March 4
Total Share Share of Rep Difference
Rep% HRC BO HRC BO HRC BO
OH 9% 54% 44% 49% 49% -5% 5%
TX 9% 51% 47% 46% 53% -5% 6%
MS 12% 38% 60% 75% 25% 37% -35%
IN 10% 50.1% 49.9% 53% 47% 3% -3%
NC 5% 42% 56% 61% 32% 19% -24%
Avg 9% 47% 51% 57% 41% 10% -10%
__________________________________________________________
PARTY ID
Pre- March 4
AL MIX HRC BO JE
Dem 82% 40% 58% 1%
Rep 5% 52% 45% 3%
Ind 13% 48% 48% 3%
Total 41.6% 56.1% 1.4%
SC
Dem 73% 28% 57% 14%
Rep 4% 20% 37% 43%
Ind 23% 26% 42% 32%
Total 27.2% 52.8% 19.3%
IL
Dem 79% 36% 63% 1%
Rep 6% 36% 60% 4%
Ind 16% 22% 72% 4%
Total 34.1% 64.9% 1.7%
MO
Dem 73% 50% 47% 2%
Rep 6% 21% 75% 4%
Ind 22% 30% 67% 2%
Total 44.4% 53.6% 2.1%
LA MIX HRC BO
Dem 83% 38% 57%
Rep 5% 17% 53%
Ind 12% 36% 53%
Total 36.7% 56.3%
VA
Dem 70% 38% 62%
Rep 7% 23% 72%
Ind 22% 30% 69%
Total 34.8% 63.6%
WI
Dem 62% 46% 53%
Rep 9% 28% 72%
Ind 28% 33% 64%
Total 40.3% 57.3%
__________________________________________________________
Party ID
Post March 4 (Operation Chaos)
OH MIX HRC BO
Dem 69% 56% 42%
Rep 9% 49% 49%
Ind 22% 48% 50%
Total 53.6% 44.4%
TX
Dem 66% 53% 46%
Rep 9% 46% 53%
Ind 25% 48% 49%
Total 51.1% 47.4%
MS
Dem 71% 30% 67%
Rep 12% 75% 25%
Ind 17% 43% 53%
Total 37.6% 59.6%
IN
Dem 67% 51% 49%
Rep 10% 53% 47%
Ind 23% 46% 54%
Total 50.1% 49.1%
NC
Dem 76% 39% 60%
Rep 5% 61% 32%
Ind 19% 50% 45%
Total 42.2% 55.8%
Original Article [3]